S&P 500 - 3.6% (8.8% Outperformance)

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Scottie Scheffler — leading the field in strokes gained tee-to-green, around-the-green, and total. Reminding the world he's still the best. Cadillac's a layup.

Collin Morikawa — top-10s at the Masters and Heritage on a bad back. Now ranks #1 in this field in approach play. If healthy, he wins.

Adam Scott — last guy to win at Doral on Tour. Was 10 years younger then. Still long, irons trending. Not a crazy ticket at 33-1.

Justin Rose — debuting new McLaren irons (yes, that McLaren) at age 45. Second-best approach season of his career. Sneaky.

Chris Gotterup — won twice early this season. Top-10 last week at Memorial Park, top-25 at the Masters. Short game is the only thing standing between him and No. 3.

Truist next week, PGA Championship the week after at Aronimink — the major engine is firing back up. May is a brutal month for sleep.

At-home pick: Skip the Sunday morning round and watch the back nine at Doral with a julep in hand. Trade your grip pressure for an ice tongs grip. You'll thank me.

The Black Keys — Peaches! (May 1) — first record they've mixed entirely themselves since 2006. Auerbach calls it the most natural thing they've made since The Big Come Up. Stripped-back, swaggering Black Keys. Yes please.

Paul McCartney — The Boys of Dungeon Lane (May 1) — first new McCartney album since 2020's McCartney III. Andrew Watt produced. Named for a winding road from his childhood that ran toward the Mersey. He's 83. He still has it.

Kacey Musgraves — Middle of Nowhere (May, TBC) — Kacey rarely settles for genre comfort. Expect this one to land sharper than the last.

Charley Crockett — Age of the Ram — still in heavy rotation a couple weeks in. Holds up.

Dierks Bentley — "Country Song Came On" — straightforward radio country, but the kind that goes down easy with a julep on the porch.

Zach Top — if you missed him this winter, fix that this weekend. Traditional country with a real voice. Chris Stapleton-level pedigree, George Strait energy.

Derby Day playlist move: Start with "My Old Kentucky Home" before the post parade (it's the law down there), then pivot to outlaw country and let the bourbon do the rest.

The official Churchill Downs recipe: Make mint simple syrup the night before (boil 1 cup sugar + 1 cup water, cool, steep with 6–8 sprigs of spearmint overnight). One julep at a time: crushed ice, 1 tablespoon syrup, 2 oz Old Forester. Garnish with mint you slap between your hands first. That's it.

Hosting more than four people? Don't muddle individual cups. Use the Kitchn pitcher method: pre-mix your mint syrup and bourbon in a chilled pitcher, pour over crushed ice in each glass, top with a splash of soda water. Saves your sanity. (thekitchn.com)

Bourbon hierarchy: Old Forester is the official Derby pour. Woodford Reserve is the official premium pour (and there's a 2026 commemorative bottle worth grabbing). Bulleit is the bartender's favorite for juleps because of the spice. Buffalo Trace if you can find it.

Crushed ice matters more than you think. Bag of ice cubes + clean kitchen towel + rolling pin. Beat them. The shattered, uneven texture is the entire point — it makes the cup frost faster and dilutes at the right rate.

Don't crush the mint leaves into the drink. Bruise them lightly against the cup wall to release the oil, then remove. Crushing makes it bitter. This is the single most-disputed point in julep doctrine and the right answer is: less is more.

The food side: Hot Brown sliders, deviled eggs with a little hot honey, and pimento cheese. Or order a country ham biscuit from anywhere that knows what they're doing. Derby food should not require a fork.

Closing move: When the race ends, switch the bourbon from julep duty to neat, on a big rock, and watch the post-race interviews. The juleps were ceremony. The pour after is the actual reward.

The hat is a personality test. People who go big on the hat are more fun than they look. People who refuse to wear one are usually the ones who needed to.

Make it a tradition. First Saturday in May, every year, same crew, same house. Annual rituals are the cheap version of a long marriage — you just keep showing up and the meaning compounds.

A bet you make together lands different than two bets made separately. Pool $20, pick a horse together, win or lose as a unit. It's the smallest possible joint venture.

Bring someone new — a coworker, a friend's cousin, a neighbor you've been meaning to. Derby is the exact right kind of "low pressure but feels special" introduction.

The post-race conversation is when the real connection happens. The race is two minutes. The four hours of standing around with a cup is the whole point.

Phones away during the race. It's two minutes. You can do it.

Toast the longshot. Even if you lost on it.

What: Refer 6 friends

How: Use your unique referral links in this newsletter

When: As you please

Why: Receive 6 free koozies, enlighten your friends, spread a movement

The Falcons sat the first round out — they traded their 2026 first to the Rams last year for James Pearce Jr. The Rams turned around and used it (#13) to draft Ty Simpson, the Alabama QB the Cardinals were dreaming about. Tough headline for Atlanta if Simpson cooks and Pearce regresses.

Best top pick: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders. Heisman winner, smart, accurate, tough. The roster around him is the question.

Best value pick: Spencer Fano to the Browns at #9. Plug-and-play left tackle for a team that desperately needed one.

Worst landing: Jeremiyah Love to the Cardinals at #3. The kid is a special player, but the offensive line in front of him isn't ready, and they passed on Simpson to take him. Could end up being right. Could end up being a mess.

Surprise of Day 3: The Chiefs grabbing Garrett Nussmeier in the 7th round. Andy Reid, low pick, smart QB room, sit-and-learn. Vintage Chiefs.

Snap grades are stupid and we'll all forget them in two years. The Pearce/Simpson trade for Atlanta is going to age into one of three things: a steal, a wash, or a "we're never going to talk about this again." Stay tuned.

Mock draft 2027 is already live somewhere on the internet. Don't read it. The off-season is two weeks long. Touch grass.

Base in Louisville, day-trip to Bardstown. Three days is the sweet spot. Whiskey Row downtown for urban distillery hopping; Bardstown 45 minutes south for the legacy operations. (kybourbontrail.com)

Stitzel-Weller — opened on Derby Day 1935, reopened to the public in 2014. Five miles from downtown Louisville, and the Garden & Gun Club tasting room on-site is an experience. Bucket list.

Angel's Envy on Whiskey Row — fully operational urban distillery. Their bottle-your-own experience is the actual best souvenir you can bring home.

Eat at Jeff Ruby's for the steakhouse blowout, or Doc Crow's on Whiskey Row for the casual smoked-meat-and-bourbon-flight night. Get a Hot Brown somewhere — non-negotiable.

Stay at 21c Museum Hotel if you want the hip downtown play, or Louisville Bourbon Inn in Old Louisville if you want the quiet, B&B-with-bourbon-on-tap version.

Book three months ahead for any spring or fall weekend. The trail has gotten popular enough that walk-ups don't really work anymore. Tuesday–Thursday is wide-open if you can swing it.

Closing pitch: Drive Atlanta → Louisville is ~6 hours, stop at a Buc-ee's, you're there by dinner. Fly is one hour. Either works. Just go before everyone else figures out it's the South's most underrated city.

Two minutes all-out on the assault bike. That's the workout. That's the whole workout. Watch the second hand and don't let up. You'll know what tired is.

Thoroughbreds train at distance and race at speed. Translation: you don't have to PR every gym visit. Most days, just put in the volume.

The Derby horses run roughly 37 mph. You don't. Don't try. Sprint 70%, not 100%, on a turf field, in cleats, until your lungs feel like they're done. That's the move.

Heart rate zone two for the long, slow base work. Then once a week, push to threshold. That's the recipe most amateurs ignore.

A walk after the third julep counts. Movement is movement.

Hip mobility work — the most underrated 10 minutes of your week. Couch stretch, 90/90, world's greatest. Do it during the post parade.

Closing thought: The horses you bet on today have been training for this exact two minutes since they were two years old. Your training horizon is also longer than one workout. Show up boring on Monday. The compound interest is real.